In the two weeks before the election, the dueling narratives about the Latino vote are boiling down to this: The “Trump Effect” will propel more Hispanics than ever before to the polls, or “Don’t believe the hype.”
There’s so much uncertainty about what will happen on Nov. 8 that partisans are basically stuck grasping at anything that might predict victory for their favored candidate. Yet the data continue to say different things.
The Pew Hispanic Center recently published numbers that threw a wet blanket on those hoping Donald Trump’s insults of minorities would spur trips to the polls. Its late-summer survey of 1,507 Latino adults, including 804 registered voters, painted the so-called “Sleeping Giant” as still snuggled in its pajamas, snoring away.
Pew found that the share of Latino registered voters who said they are “absolutely certain” they will vote this November (69 percent) is down from the share who said the same in 2012 (77 percent).
Predictably, young people, who have a reputation for not getting out to polls, reflected some of the sharpest declines.